Seven years after taking office, U.S. President George W. Bush is making his first visit to Israel and the Palestinian Authority. But if he does not bring with him a serious plan for concluding a full peace agreement by the end of his term next year, he might as well stay home.

The urgency cannot be overstated. Bush knows full well that if a peace agreement is not achieved in 2008, it won't be done in 2009 and perhaps for a very long time afterward. This is because of the political timetable in both the Palestinian Authority and the U.S.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will complete his term in January 2009 and has already announced he will not seek another term; no one knows who will replace him and whether his successor will share the same commitment to peace. In the meantime, no matter who the next American president will be, he or she will not hurry to engage in this very sensitive region, which has proved such a disappointment to previous administrations.
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President Bush's years in the White House were difficult years for the Middle East, which saw an escalation of violence and a complete halt to negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. Former prime minister Ariel Sharon did not believe in negotiations with the Palestinians, and he succeeded in convincing Bush that Arafat was another Osama bin Laden and that boycotting him was part of the war against terror. For their part, the Palestinians did their fair share as well, refusing to cooperate with any attempt to calm the area.

 

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